This weekend marks a major sporting event: the NFL draft. In years past, this was one of my favorite events, but this year I have to admit that I have almost no interest in it. This may partly be due to the my team, the Chicago Bears, not having a first round draft pick after trading for Jay Cutler, the most talented Bear QB in my lifetime and arguably the most talented in the short history of the NFC North (yes, that is another slight to you Mr. Farf – eat it!) Even before the Bears made that momentous trade that will surely see them in multiple Super Bowls, my interest in the draft had waned. I think there are a couple of reasons for it: first, the coverage is too much and the instant analysis seems silly. Second, I don’t know any of the players. I used to watch some college football, but when I started really concentrating on college basketball – something had to go. While I have taken a casual interest in the mock drafts (which have become a side business of their own) and am always amused by Mel Kiper, I think I will continue my summer sports sabbatical through the weekend.

As shown my many, many fantasy leagues, I still like drafting and the lack of interest in the football draft has allowed me to be more interested in the basketball draft. Last year, I made an effort to debunk a bit of common wisdom: that players who test the draft process can improve their game in the eyes of NBA scouts and GM’s by going back to school. As I proved conclusively: here and here,  it is nonsense. Once a player decides to leave school, he is what he is in terms of NBA draft stock. To summarize my arguments, NBA team draft more on potential than production, college players are more apt to improve in professional basketball (be it in the NBA, NBDL or Europe) because they aren’t restricted by coaching limits or academics, and by returning to school, they can hurt their draft stock by being exposed and thereby lose even more
money.

If you don’t believe me, take a look at the list of players who returned to school last year after dipping their toe in the NBA draft pool. There is a reason that the NBA cognoscenti told these players that they should go back to school: because they were not and are not good enough to play at the next level. Go ahead, take a look at that list and see how many surefire first round draft picks there are…

I see one: Ty Lawson. And he, like Brandon Rush the year before, is a special case because he was injured for much of 2007-08. Also like Rush, Lawson helped his team win a national championship, which never hurts draft stock. Nevertheless, had Lawson come out last year, I think he would have been a mid-to-late first round pick. I don’t think his draft stock has changed much because of his return to college basketball. He is a short point guard who can jet up and down the court, shoot fairly well, and is a good passer. He may be a starter in the NBA, but I wouldn’t guarantee it.

There are some other players on the list who may sneak into the first round. Lawson’s teammates Wayne Ellington and Danny Green may have their suitors. Green seems like he could be a decent bench player and Ellington may be a three-point sniper who could eventually be an above average shooting guard. I’ve always liked Jerel McNeal but his inability to grow (a common problem for college players) will leave him as a second round prospect. Lester Hudson was unbelievably productive for UT-Martin but even his otherworldly athleticism may be suspect in light of his small school. Lastly, there is Chase Budinger who also has NBA hops, but he fell out of the first round because a perceived lack of fire. Did he ignite anyone with his play for Arizona in 2008-09?

Now, you may be thinking that returning to school certainly helped a player like Blake Griffin who was the consensus Player of the Year and will undoubtedly be the first pick in the draft. Griffin did have an outstanding season and got to play with his brother Taylor again, but he would likely have been a top five pick last year and was rumored to be as high as three. I guess jumping from one to three is something, but either way he ends up in Memphis. Has returning to school for four years helped Tyler Hansbrough’s draft positioning? Not really: he’s a college basketball heavyweight who won’t be able to bull his to the basket in the pros.

There are even a couple of players who have decided to skip school entirely. Brandon Jennings, who was slated to go to Arizona before those pesky standardized test scores tripped him up, has spent the year as a bench player in Italy. Even though he wasn’t terribly productive, he is very young for the league and will likely be drafted in a lottery (Draft Express has him as the sixth best prospect). Yes, he missed out on the NCAA tournament and skipping a lot of classes, but I don’t think he has lost out on much (and gained some interesting international experience and some chunk of change).

Some people worried that Jennings would start a mad stampede of young players to Europe to circumvent the NBA’s one-and-done rule, but until this week it looked like no one would follow him. That’s when Jeremy Tyler, a highly regarded big man from San Diego, made the announcement that he was going to skip his senior year in high school and spend two years in Europe in preparation for the NBA. Tyler, who is 6-11, 255 lbs, believes that he have a better apprenticeship in Europe than in a year of high school and a year of college. I agree with him. (For a nonsensical counterpoint, read what Doug Gottlieb has to say about it). I don’t think people should have to attend college, especially when they can get paid for not attending.

You may be wondering – don’t you write about college basketball and isn’t it in your best interest for the best players to attend school if even for a year? Of course, and I’ve been glad to watch Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, and Blake Griffin dominate on the college stage. However, as greedy as I am, I can’t honestly say it is better for them to attend school if they can play professionally elsewhere. I’m rarely called selfless, but in this case I want what’s best for the individuals.