Like most people, I love to hear stories of people who bucked the system and succeeded. Seeing as that story is the plot of half the movies coming out of Hollywood, one would think Brandon Jennings would have a biopic coming out soon. All he needs is Michael Lewis to write about him. Some NBA writers have been turning themselves inside out to figure out how nine teams passed on the greatest NBA player ever (through eight games). Others are claiming that they knew Jennings was a special talent and they believed that some teams would regret not taking him. [I found this article on the Painted Area to be particularly annoying. I am not saying that NBA front offices aren’t lazy, but they seem to imply that they knew Jennings was great before he was drafted. And, yes, they pegged him as their third best prospect, but let's face it, he's way better than Ricky Rubio. No wonder some people don’t like the blogosphere – it’s full of people who are just soooo smart.] I think the bigger story may be that basketball players who don’t want to submit to the one-and-done life of recent college stars may have another option. Brandon Jennings bucked the college basketball feeder system and his great play may make a seismic difference in the hoops world.
Let’s be honest: Jennings’ play has surprised everyone. People can claim that they knew he was going to be quite good (even I had him going fourth in an early mock draft because I am just sooooo smart), but he has been ridiculous. His 55-point game against the defense-less Golden State Warriors was the exclamation point, but he has only been held to single-digits once and is averaging 25.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, and 5.5 apg. Were the Bucks geniuses for drafting him? Well, if you swing for the fences every time, you are bound to hit a homer eventually. Last year, the Bucks took Joe Alexander who won’t even last into a third season with the team. Two years ago, under different management, they took Yi Jianlian, who did more for Wong’s Wok (fast food restaurant in Milwaukee that offers gravy with Chinese food) than for the Bucks. The Bucks have had pretty good luck with their second round draft picks, including the now departed Ramon Sessions, the recently returned Ersan Ilyasova, and the defensively impressive Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, but I tend to think they lucked into Jennings rather than being much, much smarter than everyone else (unlike me and my friends in the blogosphere).
Jennings fast start has relied upon a bit of luck as well. Had Michael Redd not been injured in the second game of the season, Jennings never would have been able to rack up shot after shot. It may be that Jennings would have shown that he could hit long-range jumpers eventually, but it was a lot easier starting next to Charlie “Clanker” Bell than it was next to Redd (who is the scourge of the Real GM squad for his ball hogging ways). As with most things in sports, luck is an underrated aspect.
And it may have been somewhat lucky for all parties involved that Jennings spent last year in Italy rather than on the sunny campus of the University of Arizona . Unlike in college basketball where Jennings likely would have been a star, the Italian team made him earn his playing time. He wasn’t coddled to. And he didn’t play that much (driving down his draft status). Jennings may have learned a thing or two about what it means to be a professional. Living in a different country comes with its share of adversity and that may have been a good thing for Jennings as well. Of course, it may be that he’s just a really good basketball player and he would have prospered wherever he went.
Will Jennings’ instant success lead to more recruits heading to Europe to circumvent the one-and-done rule? I doubt it because most people wouldn’t want to go to the trouble. While Jennings’ journey may have toughened him somewhat, I think he still would have gone to Arizona if he could have gotten the standardized test scores to get in. There is also the case of Jeremy Tyler, who is playing in Israel and according to a New York Times story having a miserable time. Playing abroad won’t be for everyone – and who knows how many teams will continue to offer professional contracts to unproven high school talent? – but it may be a more common way for good players to get better while not having to attend Algebra I.
Even though many players wouldn’t consider going to Europe, maybe they should. As I’ve written before, they will have access to coaching and practicing without restriction, won’t have to bother with coursework (although I am dubious how much the top players study in the first place, right, Jim Harrick?), and they will be making money rather than being penalized for getting free shoes from some hanger-on. While I don’t think the NBA’s one-and-done rule is unconstitutional, I think more young basketball players may look at Brandon Jennings’ example and head across the pond. If someone told me they’d pay me to blog in Europe rather than writing in the US for free, I’d be gone faster than you could say arrivederci.