My apologies for not updating the blog in awhile. Two pieces of business have kept me without the proper amount of time to tip off some conference previews. First off, I opened the sign up for the Big Chief Challenge, this is my own concoction of a fantasy basketball league that I wrote about last month. Feel free to pop over to the site, look around, and join us if you feel like it (it’s free). Secondly, at some point in the next couple of months, I will be managing a fantasy college basketball content site. This preview, in an updated form, will probably land there. More details as they come available.
As for the Pac 10, on paper, it looks to be a down year. In my top ten run down last month, there was a nary player from west of the Rockies. Over the last two years, many stars have departed early (see Bruins, UCLA) and some of just run out of eligibility (like rugged Jon Brockman). If you view a conference by its signature team, then the suddenly lackluster Bruins make the conference seem weak. However, things on paper have a way of turning themselves around on the court. Someone will likely step up in southern California (USC has a lot of question marks, too) and more frontcourt players will do their requisite damage around the basket. In any case, here is my best guess at the top ten fantasy prospects for the Pac 10.
1. G Nic Wise, Arizona Wildcats
The wise return of Wise (if you aren’t good enough play in the NBA, there is nothing wrong with spending a senior season in the desert, despite what I wrote a couple of months ago brings some star power to Arizona. They have an excellent incoming recruiting class (F Solomon Hill, C Kyryl Natyzahko, and two former USC-signees Derrick Williams and Momo Jones), but an experienced hand is definitely need to mold these youngsters. While new coach Sean Miller’s style at Xavier seemed egalitarian, he recruited excellently and always had plenty of depth. If all of the Wildcat freshmen play as expected, Arizona should have nice depth as well, but Wise will be the unquestioned star of the team. The point guard may be hard pressed to equal last year’s stats (15.7 ppg, on 45.2% from the floor, 4.6 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.8 3pg, 36.4 mpg), but he should have plenty of opportunities.
2. G Jerome Randle, California Golden Bears
Randle is the league’s leading returning scorer (18.0 ppg) and assist maker (5.0 apg) and I have bounced back and forth between Randle and Wise as the league’s top player. Randle will score more than Wise, but I think the burden of actually winning (and sharing with Christopher) could affect his fantasy value a bit. The 5-10 Chicago native had a remarkable shooting season as a junior. He made 50.1% of his shots, 86.3% of his free throws, and 46.3% of his threes. Will he be able to shoot that well again? I have my doubts. His assists add value, but his lack of sticky fingers (just 0.7 spg in 35.3 mpg) may cause problems in some fantasy leagues.
3. G Isaiah Thomas, Washington Huskies
It will be interesting to see which Is(a)iah Thomas garners more media attention by season’s end. The new Florida International coach is doing a nice job of escaping his NBA shadow, but my guess is that the pint-sized Husky sophomore will be the one getting the ink. The 5-8 shooting guard led Washington, the Pac 10 regular season champion, in scoring at 15.5 in his first year and wasn’t shy about taking shots away from the upper classmen. He only made 41.8% of his shots and 29.1% of threes, so a marked improvement in those numbers will lead to an improved season. Thomas should start next to 6-3 freshman Abdul Gaddy, so his size will be less of a factor against Husky opponents.
4. G Patrick Christopher, California Golden Bears
Between fellow seniors Randle and Christopher, the Golden Bears have not only the best backcourt in the Pac 10, but one of the best in the nation. It will be up to the frontcourt (including Jamal Boykin) to keep pace and help Cal to the top of the Pac 10 standings. As a junior, Christopher actually took a slight step back as Randle took a giant leap forward. The 6-5 shooting guard saw his scoring average fall from his fine sophomore season from 15.2 ppg to 14.5 ppg. He made more threes (35.8%) and more free throws (83.0%), but saw his field goal percentage fall to 44.1% (from 45.6%). Christopher scored in the 20’s eight times, including each of the first four conference games in early January. As opposing defenses concentrate on Randle, Christopher will need to provide offensive balance.
5. G Klay Thompson, Washington State Cougars
For the duration of the Bennett era in Pullman, the Cougars played the slowest brand of basketball possible. While I am not going to say that it was bad basketball necessarily or even hard to watch, it drastically hurt the fantasy values of players who could have been pretty decent on an up tempo team. Bennett has moved on to Virginia and former Portland coach Ken Bone is in his place. While the Cougars may not turn into VMI overnight, they should play a speedier brand of ball. That will help sophomore G Klay Thompson who had a respectable freshman season (12.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.1 3pg). Mychal’s son played big minutes (33.1 mpg) in his first year and scored in the 20’s three times (all against Pac 10 competition). He should be the focus of the Cougar offense and could be among the conference’s leading scorers.
6. F Quincy Pondexter, Washington Huskies
I am proud to state that for the first time in my college basketball writing history, I have not added an “I” to the middle of Pondexter’s name. For whatever reason, I apparently got the 6-6 Husky forward confused with a member of the cast of Revenge of the Nerds. It’s kind of hard to believe that Pondexter was part of the same recruiting class as Spencer Hawes. The Fresno, CA native has survived to his senior year and is coming off a junior season in which he set career highs in scoring (12.1 ppg), shooting (51.1%), and rebounding (5.9 rpg). Without rebound magnet Brockman around, Pondexter is a good bet to collect more boards and could get more scoring opportunities as well.
7. F Landry Fields, Stanford Cardinal
In his first year as a starter, the 6-7 Fields showed that he could play competently (averages of 12.6 ppg on 49.8% shooting, 6.6 rpg, 0.9 3pg) and sometimes excellently. Fields had his best game in the last Pac 10 conference tournament. In a losing effort against Washington, he provided 16 points and 15 rebounds for his fifth double-double of the year. In 2009-2010, the senior will need to lead a young squad. He did score in the 20’s three times last year, but he will likely attract more defensive attention this year. His field goal percentage will likely decrease, but his points could average out to about 15 per game.
8. G TaJuan Porter, Oregon Ducks
For non-fantasy purposes, Porter is my least favorite type of player: a short shooting guard who bombs away and has little interest in passing. My impressions aside, Porter has been a consistent long range threat over his first three years with the Ducks and there’s little reason to think he’ll provide something different in his senior season. The 5-6 shooting guard has averaged between 13.9 and 15.4 ppg over his career and has made no less than 2.6 3pg. Last year, he provided his career high in scoring and 2.8 3pg. He will not help your team’s shooting percentage (39.3% from the floor), but he did make 87.2% of his free throws and provided a career high 1.0 spg.
9. G Abdul Gaddy*, Washington Huskies
Generally, I take a conservative approach to freshmen. Gaddy is the only one to make my Pac 10 top ten and I think number nine is probably the right place for him. The 6-3 guard from Tacoma, WA should start next to Thomas, but he will have some competition in Venoy Overton to take Justin Dentmon’s spot. Gaddy will likely grow into the starter’s role, but he could lead the conference in assists by the end of season. The Huskies have plenty of offensive options, so Gaddy might not be among the lead scorer’s. Husky coach Lorenzo Romar has shown no fear in playing freshmen big minutes. If the scouting reports are true about Gaddy being a pure point guard, he will get plenty of court time.
10. G Derek Glasser, Arizona State Sun Devils
There were a number of options for this tenth slot, but rather than going with one of the mediocre-to-possibly-decent big men, I decided to complete the point guard trend and go with the Sun Devils field marshal. The 6-1 senior has now had three years to run coach Herb Sendek’s Princeton-style offense and he made the most of his starting role last year. He set career highs in minutes (33.0 mpg), points (8.8 ppg), assists (4.8 apg), threes (1.3 3pg) and three-point percentage (41.3%) while chipping into an NCAA tournament team. Speaking of the Big Dance, Glasser saved his best game for the Sun Devils’ win over Temple with 22 points and four threes. While he might not blow up to become a superstar, Glasser should be a consistent contributor of ten points and five assists per game.